Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 0.041329 0.047685 0.054331 0.061766 0.069822 0.078258 0.087731
2025-03-23 0.031879 0.041193 0.051597 0.063928 0.077999 0.093417 0.111456
2025-03-30 0.025314 0.036292 0.049292 0.065453 0.084656 0.106426 0.132655
2025-04-06 0.021485 0.033740 0.048986 0.068680 0.092819 0.120880 0.155409
2025-04-13 0.017056 0.029595 0.046033 0.068104 0.095985 0.129169 0.170801
2025-04-20 0.015505 0.028988 0.047350 0.072672 0.105318 0.144779 0.194905
2025-04-27 0.012143 0.025235 0.044019 0.070854 0.106357 0.150109 0.206541
2025-05-04 0.010759 0.024212 0.044261 0.073621 0.113156 0.162505 0.226796
2025-05-11 0.008693 0.021733 0.042135 0.072932 0.115285 0.168958 0.239697
2025-05-18 0.007547 0.020603 0.041850 0.074690 0.120581 0.179395 0.257575
2025-05-25 0.006446 0.019349 0.041224 0.075851 0.125009 0.188705 0.274069
2025-06-01 0.004735 0.016528 0.037813 0.072698 0.123345 0.189978 0.280295
2025-06-08 0.003240 0.013794 0.034373 0.069500 0.121804 0.191788 0.287817
2025-06-15 0.002758 0.013268 0.034709 0.072136 0.128632 0.204901 0.310227
2025-06-22 0.002242 0.012490 0.034496 0.073875 0.134196 0.216404 0.330703
2025-06-29 0.001978 0.012323 0.035389 0.077387 0.142378 0.231527 0.356046
2025-07-06 0.001409 0.010965 0.033824 0.076774 0.144438 0.238311 0.370471
2025-07-13 0.001340 0.011268 0.035574 0.081705 0.154790 0.256540 0.400140
2025-07-20 0.000852 0.009711 0.033323 0.079745 0.154732 0.260385 0.410736
2025-07-27 0.000719 0.009532 0.033957 0.082729 0.162172 0.274676 0.435337
2025-08-03 0.000458 0.008477 0.032517 0.081986 0.163856 0.280913 0.449170
2025-08-10 0.000345 0.008103 0.032575 0.083879 0.169610 0.292894 0.470794
2025-08-17 0.000239 0.007618 0.032299 0.085130 0.174353 0.303465 0.490562